The Mandalorian and Grogu Opens to $80M+ But Is Star Wars Franchise Fatigue Real?

The Mandalorian and Grogu Debuts with $80M+ Opening Weekend — But Don't Expect a Celebration at Disney

After a seven-year absence from the big screen, Star Wars is finally back in theaters with The Mandalorian and Grogu, and it's topping the Memorial Day 2026 box office. But the numbers tell a complicated story — one that might make Disney execs rethink their entire theatrical strategy.

Directed by Jon Favreau, the film earned $33 million on Friday alone from 4,300 North American theaters and is projected to finish the long holiday weekend somewhere between $80 million and $100 million. For context, that ceiling of $100 million puts it almost exactly where 2018's Solo: A Star Wars Story landed — and we all remember how that played out financially.

Why Disney Isn't Panicking About the Numbers

Here's the thing: The Mandalorian and Grogu isn't being judged by the same box office standards as a Marvel blockbuster. According to an inside source at Disney, the real goal here is merchandise revenue — Grogu toys have been an absolute goldmine since The Mandalorian first aired on Disney+ in 2019. Tickets sold are just one piece of a much larger revenue puzzle.

The movie also earned a solid CinemaScore from opening night audiences, suggesting that people who showed up actually enjoyed it. The film follows Din Djarin (played by Pedro Pascal) and Grogu as they attempt to save Rotta the Hutt — Jabba the Hutt's son — from a warlord gangster. The cast also includes Jeremy Allen White, Sigourney Weaver, and Jonny Coyne.

The bigger question is whether "franchise fatigue" and the "small-screenification" of Star Wars — through shows like Andor, Ahsoka, and the original The Mandalorian series — has permanently changed how audiences engage with the franchise. Seven years between theatrical releases probably didn't help, but bringing the IP back to cinemas via a Disney+ spinoff is an interesting play.

The Rest of the Memorial Day Box Office

Beyond Star Wars, this weekend had some genuine surprises:

Obsession — Focus Features' horror hit directed by Curry Barker is pulling a wild second-weekend move, actually growing 16% from its $17.2M opening to an estimated $19.9M. Its domestic total is heading toward $55.1M.
Michael — Lionsgate's musical biopic crossed $300 million domestically and is on track to surpass Bohemian Rhapsody ($911M worldwide) as the highest-grossing musical biopic ever. Currently sitting at $788.8M globally.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 — 20th Century's sequel pushed its domestic total to nearly $200 million after four weekends.
Passenger — Paramount's R-rated horror directed by André Øvredal, starring Melissa Leo and Lou Llobell, opened around $9-10M for the holiday frame.
I Love Boosters — Boots Riley's surreal comedy featuring Keke Palmer, Demi Moore, and LaKeith Stanfield opened at $4-5M.

The Bottom Line

The Mandalorian and Grogu proved that Star Wars can still draw crowds — even if the numbers don't scream "event movie" anymore. Whether this is a healthy recalibration or a warning sign for future theatrical releases like Dawn of the Jedi remains to be seen. One thing's certain: Grogu's toy sales are about to break some records, and Disney's bottom line probably doesn't care much about the box office debate.

What do you think — is Star Wars franchise fatigue real, or are you still lining up for every new release? Let us know in the comments!