Toy Story 5 Box Office Forecast Just Got Even Bigger — Pixar Could Score Its Biggest Debut Since Inside Out 2

Toy Story 5 Is Tracking for a Record-Breaking Opening Weekend

If you thought Toy Story 5 was going to be just another Pixar sequel, the latest box office numbers are about to change your mind. The animated blockbuster — directed by Andrew Stanton and releasing June 19, 2026 — just got a major upgrade in its opening weekend forecast, and the numbers are staggering.

BoxOffice Pro has updated its long-range prediction for the film's domestic debut to a jaw-dropping $165 million to $185 million for its first weekend. That's a significant jump from last week's estimate of $150 million to $175 million, meaning buzz is only intensifying as we approach release day.

How Does This Compare to Other Big Hits?

Let's put those numbers in context. If Toy Story 5 hits the high end of $185 million, it would have:

• The biggest domestic opening of any movie in 2026, beating every film so far this year
• Pixar's biggest debut since Inside Out 2, which opened to $154 million last summer
• The highest domestic opening for any animated film, surpassing Incredibles 2's $182.6 million record
• A stronger start than both Moana 2 ($139.7 million) and Zootopia 2 ($100.2 million)
• Only the fourth-biggest opening behind Deadpool & Wolverine's massive $211 million

That's not just good for Pixar — that's extraordinary for any studio in the current theatrical landscape.

What's Driving the Massive Hype?

Several factors are converging to make Toy Story 5 the cultural event of the summer. For starters, the film has the Juneteenth and Father's Day weekend advantage, giving families extra time to hit theaters together. But the marketing has been equally impressive.

Taylor Swift dropped an original single for the film called "I Knew It, I Knew You" on June 7, and the music video has already racked up over 4.7 million views on YouTube. Her Instagram announcement alone garnered 3.9 million likes — the kind of organic engagement that money can't buy.

Meanwhile, Tom Hanks returns as Woody, though director Andrew Stanton revealed that Woody was almost cut from the first draft of the screenplay. Stanton felt the script didn't work without the beloved cowboy sheriff, and fans are clearly thrilled he stayed.

Competition on the Horizon

Toy Story 5 enters a relatively open weekend — Disclosure Day (Steven Spielberg's UFO thriller) will be its main competition. But things get tougher the following weeks when Supergirl arrives on June 26 and Minions & Monsters drops on July 1. The real question is whether the film can sustain its momentum long enough to challenge Toy Story 4's $1.07 billion worldwide haul.

Not every outlet is equally bullish — Deadline projects a slightly more conservative opening of just over $150 million and cautions that tracking for Toy Story 4 also overestimated its final numbers. But even at the low end, we're still talking about a massive weekend.

One thing's certain: Pixar's seven-year gap between Toy Story 4 and Toy Story 5 has built up enormous generational goodwill. Parents who grew up with Woody and Buzz are now bringing their own kids to theaters. That multi-generational pull is exactly what makes Toy Story 5 special — and why Disney is betting big that this franchise still has plenty of gas left in the tank.

Toy Story 5 hits theaters on June 19, 2026. Are you planning to see it opening weekend? Drop your thoughts below!